Which Movies Are Most Likely to Skip Movie Theaters and Be Released on VOD

Friday, August 21

Mulan

Disney has maintained that theres no way Mulan and Black Widow, the studios two biggest 2020 tentpoles, will go straight to streaming. Theyre dedicated to the theatrical experience, and thats that. It doesnt hurt any that both of these movies cost obscene amounts of money to make, so it seems pretty difficult to break even with half-full theaters and something like 60% of your audience convinced that its not a good idea to be in crowded rooms.

Antebellum

This one seems like a perfect candidate for a straight-to-streaming movie. From Lionsgate, a mid-sized studio who have shown themselves to be flexible in terms of release strategies, Antebellum centers on a successful author, who finds herself in a horrifying reality and must figure out the mystery behind it before it is too late. It has a lot of potential upside, but its also made on a small budget, and even just the title Antebellum, given the current hesitation about all things from the Reconstruction-era South, seems like a loser at the box office. Send this one to streaming and watch it find exactly the audience it deserves.

Let Him Go

Let Him Go is probably pretty borderline. It seems like a decent candidate for a streaming release it was made relatively inexpensively, and comes from Focus Features but the cast itself feels like it deserves a big-screen release. The movie, about a retired sheriff and his wife who fight to rescue their grandson from a dangerous off-grid family upon the death of their son, stars Kevin Costner, Diane Lane and Lesley Manville.

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Friday, August 28

At one point, The New Mutants was going to open here, but instead its going to September on Disney+. That leaves Bill & Ted Face the Music, the long-awaited sequel to the cult-classic Bill & Teds Excellent Adventure and Bogus Journey to stand alone. This one is likely dependent on Mulan; if that movie really comes out and looks like its ready to have some measure of success, Orion might roll the dice, given that Bill & Ted likely doesnt need to make a ton of money to break even. Still, theyd like it to be a hit, both for the long-term health of the franchise and because a failure starring Keanu Reeves is a waste of one of Hollywoods greatest resources.

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Friday, September 4

A Quiet Place Part II

Not much of a chance of this one getting a small-screen-first release. The experience really enhanced A Quiet Place, and since the movie is relatively inexpensive compared to other movies with the same financial upside, it feels like it can wait.

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Friday, September 18

The Kings Man, the latest intsallment in the Kingsman franchise based on the comics by Dave Gibbons and Mark Millar, is the next comic book movie likely to hit theaters. Given the tepid performance of the previous installment, it might be a good candidate for being dumped on either Disney+ or Hulu but if so, it might spell trouble for the film franchise as a whole.

In The War with Grandpa, Peter and his grandpa used to be very close, but when Grandpa Jack moves in with the family, Peter is forced to give up his most prized possession: his bedroom. Peter will stop at nothing to get his room back, scheming with friends to devise a series of pranks to drive him out. However, grandpa doesnt give up easily, and it turns into an all-out war between the two.

This ones a toss-up. With stars like Christopher Walken and Robert DeNiro and a reatively inexpensive budget, it feels like it would be a guaranteed success on streaming, even though it isnt strictly necessary to drop it there. The dealbreaker there might be the fact that even pre-COVID, this movie has been delayed a bunch of times since 2018.

In Kajillionaire, two con artists have spent 26 years training their only daughter to swindle, scam and steal at every turn. During a desperate and hastily conceived heist, they charm a stranger into joining them, only to have their entire world turned upside down. The movie feels like a great candidate for a home release, since its a small movie without a superstar cast, but with terrific reviews from Focus, an indie studio that doesnt have a lot of big money hits.

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Friday, September 25

Given the success they have already had with Premium Video on Demand and the likely box office for Praise This, a musical comedy from filmmaker Tina Gordon, dont be surprised if this one ends up going the way of Trolls World Tour and making more money on VOD than it likely would have made in theaters. That assumes its even ready to roll yet; the movie hasnt got a trailer or offiical art as far as we can tell by looking at the Universal website.

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Friday, October 2

Wonder Woman 1984 has the benefit of being scheduled far enough out that its release date will likely be impacted by the performances of other planned big hits like Tenet, Mulan, and The Kings Man, but it seems impossible to imagine a movie this big the $200 million sequel to a critically beloved movie that grossed $1 billion heading to HBO Max, as much as fans might hope to see it sooner.

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Friday, October 9

Death on the Nile, Kenneth Branaghs follow-up to Murder on the Orient Express, feels unlikely to get a streaming release first. It appeals to cinematic purists who want to see beautifully shot movies on a big screen, and while it was an outsized hit for its modest budget, it feels like something that might have a hard time finding its audience with an SVOD-only debut.

The Witches is a stumper. Its hard to know what Warners expects out of this movie (the previous version didnt perform that well in its initial box office run, but became a beloved classic), and its possible that if they think they can capitalize on a family audience during a down month, and do so without risking another Blade Runner 2045-style embarrassment, it might be worth it.

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Friday, October 16

Candyman is going to hit theaters. Given that its a fairly low-budget horror movie thats hugely anticipated, it might seem like an obvious choice, but it also isnt scheduled until mid-October, and it doesnt need to make gargantuan money to turn a profit.

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Dont expect to see The French Dispatch coming direct-to-home, either, for much the same reason we gave with Death on the Nile. Its guaranteed a certain amount of money from filmmaker Wes Andersons hardcore fans in theaters, but it might not find them or they might not respond as well to it at home.

Out beyond this who knows? We could make some wild guesses, but as we get further and further from the start of the pandemic, peoples patience, the markets needs, and other factors will begin to have an outsized impact on exhibitingunless there continues to be a persistent public health crisis with thousands of deaths a week. If that keeps up, its impossible to know whether the calendar will start to look normal before the end of the year at all.

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